New Zealand Faces Accelerating Natural Gas Depletion: A Call to Action for Energy Security

Wellington, New Zealand – New Zealand’s vital natural gas supply is diminishing at a significantly faster rate than previously projected, raising pressing concerns about the nation’s energy future. The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) has issued a revised forecast, indicating that annual gas production is now expected to fall below 100 petajoules (PJ) by next year, a level previously anticipated only by 2029. This accelerated decline demands immediate attention and strategic responses to safeguard New Zealand’s energy security.
Further underscoring the urgency, MBIE reported that as of January this year, natural gas proven plus probable (2P) reserves plummeted by a staggering 27% compared to last year, dropping from 1300 PJ to 948 PJ. Karlene Tipler, MBIE’s head of data service delivery, attributed this significant reduction largely to field operators revising down their estimates of readily extractable gas by 234 PJ. While contingent gas reserves – gas that exists but is not currently extractable due to economic or technical reasons – saw an increase of 184 PJ (10%), a portion of this rise is due to previous 2P reserves being downgraded to contingent resources, notably from the Pohokura field. Tipler noted that some of this contingent gas could potentially be upgraded to 2P if economic or technical conditions evolve.
Resources Minister Shane Jones highlighted the stark implications of these findings, emphasizing that the rapid decline in gas reserves is a “stark reminder” of the government’s critical need to boost investment in exploration and production. “New Zealand needs a secure supply of affordable and reliable gas for industry to continue and for Kiwis to keep the lights on,” Jones asserted. He firmly stated that the 27% year-on-year decline in reserves unequivocally validates the Coalition Government’s decision to overturn the oil and gas exploration ban and to become a “cornerstone investor” in gas production. In line with this commitment, Budget 2025 includes a substantial allocation of $200 million over four years for co-investment in new domestic gas field developments, signaling a proactive stance to address the looming energy challenge and secure New Zealand’s power supply for the future.